Entenda o Gráfico de Underwater
Conheça o único curso de VBA 100% focado no mercado financeiro! Método exclusivo desenvolvido e validado presencialmente (por 214 alunos) pelo autor deste blog, Rafael Lavrado. Do zero ao avançado!
Introdução Artigo
Vamos aprender o que é o gráfico de Underwater, como calcula-lo no Excel e como usa-lo para analisar investimentos.
INTRODUÇÃO
Já abordamos Máximo Drawdown neste post. Agora, vamos falar de um gráfico relacionado ao Máximo Drawdown, conhecido como o Gráfico de Underwater e que tem essa aparência:
Eu gosto muito de usar esse gráfico para analisar fundos e estratégia de investimento.
Mas antes de entrar na análise, vamos entender o que significa esse gráfico…
A princípio ele parece complicado, mas não é! Esse gráfico mede, em cada ponto, a maior perda acumulada até aquele momento. Ou seja, é um gráfico para analisar somente as perdas.
Olhe esse exemplo bem simples pra ficar mais claro. O primeiro gráfico é o histórico de preço e o segundo é justamente o Gráfico de Underwater.
Acompanhe agora junto com o gráfico…
Repare que os dois primeiros pontos do gráfico estão zerados. Por que isso?
Nos dois primeiros pontos não há perda acumulada. No dia 3, não existe um investidor que perdeu dinheiro e o pior que pode ter acontecido é o cara ter entrado quando o preço estava 103 ao invés de 100.
No entanto, conforme o preço sobe para 103 novamente, já acontece a primeira perda. Note que, considerando o período inicial, o ativo ainda sobe, pois ele começou em 100. No entanto, quem entrou a 104 está perdendo (103/104 -1 = -1%)
Perceba que, quando o preço bate em 106, o gráfico zera novamente, pois nesse ponto não há ninguém para trás que perdeu dinheiro.
Como criar esse gráfico
Se você entendeu o que significa esse gráfico, criá-lo no Excel é extremamente fácil.
Em todo ponto, seu objetivo é saber qual a perda máxima daquele ponto para trás.
Dessa forma, em cada linha, é só calcular a rentabilidade, comparando o preço da linha com o máximo ocorrido em linhas anteriores incluindo a própria linha.
Uma simples fórmula do Excel faz esse trabalho!
Note que só a célula B5 está travada (B$5). Por que isso?
Se não travasse, quando descesse com a fórmula, ela deslocaria automaticamente e eu teria que ficar aumentando o range manualmente a cada vez.
Travando a célula B5 (o primeiro preço), a fórmula vai englobar sempre o período do preço atual até o primeiro preço.
Note também que, quando o gráfico está indicando zero, é porque o ponto atual é igual ao máximo para trás, ou seja, naquele ponto ninguém perdeu dinheiro para trás.
Olhando esse gráfico, dá para concluir que seu ponto mínimo é justamente o máximo drawdown da série inteira.
Essa é uma forma de calcular o máximo drawdown sem precisar apelar para o VBA!
Como interpretar
Um erro comum em é sempre focar nos ganhos e esquecer das possíveis perdas. Por isso,eu gosto desse gráfico porque ele dá uma boa noção da característica de drawdown do seu ativo.
Em um fundo de investimento, por exemplo, você pode avaliar se está confortável com essa característica.
Se observar que é normal ocorrerem perdas de 10-15%, você deve considerar se ficaria confortável com essas perdas, caso venha a ocorrer.
Caso contrário, talvez não seja uma boa ideia investir.
O Bitcoin é um exemplo clássico de perdas que poderiam ter sido avaliadas através desse gráfico.
No final de 2017, todo mundo só olhou o quanto o Bitcoin subiu. No entanto, se plotássemos esse gráfico para o Bitcoin, você veria que perdas de mais de 30% eram bem comuns para esse ativo.
Muita gente que não estava preparada para uma perda de 30% acabou investindo e, é claro, saiu do investimento na pior hora possível!!
Agora, é só baixar a planilha para aprender a plotar esse tipo de gráfico!
Planilha para Download
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